Shamil Ismail’s New Book Explores the Global Population Crisis
For decades, fears of overpopulation have dominated discussions about the future of our planet. But what if the real crisis is population decline? In his thought-provoking new book, The Age of Decay: How Aging and Shrinking Populations Could Usher in the Decline of Civilization, Investment analyst Shamil Ismail argues that falling birth rates and an ageing population pose an unprecedented threat to economic stability and societal functioning.
A Looming Crisis: Too Few Workers, Too Many Dependents
Across much of the developed world, fertility rates have plummeted well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. While this trend has been developing for decades, its consequences are now becoming alarmingly clear. Ismail warns that as populations age and shrink, fewer workers will be available to sustain the critical services we take for granted – such as healthcare, infrastructure maintenance, and essential industries.
The COVID-19 pandemic gave us a preview of this reality, as supply chain disruptions and labour shortages exposed the fragility of modern economies. But as Ismail explains, these shortages were temporary – whereas a long-term demographic decline will be permanent.
A Sobering Look at the Future
Drawing from real-world examples, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Ismail illustrates how temporary shortages in essential workers can become structural issues, leading to widespread societal challenges. He delves into various contributing factors, such as rising education levels and evolving work attitudes among younger generations, which exacerbate the scarcity of individuals in crucial, lower-skilled roles. The book also critically examines proposed solutions like automation and increasing the retirement age, highlighting their limitations in addressing the core issues at hand.
- Dr Pali Lehohla, former Chair of the UN Statistics Commission, describes the book as an eye-opener that ‘catapults you into a future scenario that cannot be ignored.’
- Professor Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics praises it as ‘tautly written and well-researched’, drawing attention to the profound economic shifts that population decline will trigger.
- Darrell Bricker, co-author of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, calls The Age of Decay ‘captivating, carefully considered, and well-argued’.
Can We Reverse the Trend?
Ismail delves into potential solutions, including increased automation, raising the retirement age, and immigration as a source of new workers. However, he argues that none of these will fully resolve the looming crisis. AI and robotics cannot yet replace human labour in essential industries, delaying retirement is only a temporary fix, and immigration policies are becoming more restrictive as nations compete for a shrinking pool of available workers.
Ultimately, Ismail makes a compelling case that societies must rethink their approach to demographic sustainability. Governments and businesses that fail to adapt risk economic stagnation, declining living standards, and social unrest.
Get Your Copy of The Age of Decay
For business leaders, policymakers, and anyone concerned about the future of work, economic stability, and global demographics, The Age of Decay is an essential read.
Order your copy today from Publisher.co.za
Join the conversation about one of the most critical challenges of our time and explore how demographic shifts will shape the 21st century.